At the open of the week, the price is 0.14% higher as bulls look to protect a strategic layer of support, as illustrated below, and trades near $1,770. The high of the day so far has been $1,772 and the lows were $1,764.

The week ahead will have plenty of Federal Reserve speakers, and the Fed’s Beige Book could give further insight into the breadth and depth of bottlenecks facing US industry. Depending on the Fed's rhetoric, gold prices will likely be caught in conflicting sentiment with regards to inflation, stagflation, timings for tapering and final liftoff.

Arguments against stagflation risks

For the week ahead, it will really be a matter of what side of the argument the markets want to fall on. There are plenty of arguments against stagflation risks brewing just as fast as the arguments for it have risen in recent weeks. For one, analysts at ANZ bank argued that ''activity and price data for September out last week ran counter to the stagflation narrative there was broad-based strength in retail sales while a range of inflation measures, though still elevated, came in softer than expected.''

Additionally, the analysts noted that ''the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker, a measure we follow closely, jumped to 4.2% y/y in September up from 3% in May. The increase is largely owing to a sharp rise in wages for low-skilled workers in leisure and hospitality.''

Moreover, the analysts explained that ''President Biden is working with ports on the west coast to ease backlogs. In addition, a number of large logistic and retailing companies are set to expand the use of non-peak hours to ease supply-chain logjams.''

Technical analysis

Gold price hit the $1,813 now find support on the 4-hourly 50-SMA at $1,767.64. As illustrated above, the price is testing not only the up-slopping support but also the horizontal around $1,765. This would be expected to hold initial tests and potentially lead to a retest of the prior day's lows of the Doji candle which has a confluence with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level near $1,770.

If gold does manage to break these supports, there is still going to be room into the $1,750 where price could find itself stuck in a range, aka, the ''barroom brawl''.

If, on the other hand, the price holds and moves up beyond $1,770 again, that would be bullish.